November 28, 2021

Presidential 2022: the French severe with Anne Hidalgo according to our Odoxa-La Dépêche poll

the essential
Our political barometer Odoxa-La Dépêche shows an erosion in the popularity of the executive couple, an increase in that of Eric Zemmour and the difficulties of Anne Hidalgo.

Six months before the presidential election, the month of October seems to shake up the certainties of the political class and shuffle the cards a little more according to our barometer Odoxa-Dentsu Consulting for LCP-National Assembly, Public Senate and La Dépêche du Midi.

The executive put to the test of rising prices

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille

On the executive side, popularity is, in fact, at half mast: Emmanuel Macron is down by 2 points (to 40%) and Jean Castex by 3 points (to 37%). Both appear to be impacted by the rise in fuel prices and the rise in French concerns about purchasing power. “It is not sure that the measures announced are sufficient to stem the rise in discontent”, estimates Gaël Sliman, president of Odoxa, the survey having been carried out before the announcement Thursday evening of “the inflation allowance” of 100 € for 38 million French people.

However, Emmanuel Macron can boast of having a solid base: with 40% of French people satisfied, he is one step ahead of his many competitors.

The Republicans caught in a pincer movement by Philippe and Zemmour

On the right, despite the rabibochage operation between all the LR candidates at the congress during a breakfast organized by Christian Jacob, the party is facing a double threat: that of Edouard Philippe and Eric Zemmour.

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille

The first, who launched his Horizons party, is the indestructible No. 1 on our list with 44% of French people “supporting” or “feeling sympathy” for him.

The second recorded the largest increase but on the contrary became the political figure most rejected by the French.

Zemmour the most rejected political figure by the French

Éric Zemmour recorded the biggest increase this month on our barometer: +4 points (8th place). Correlated to his spectacular breakthrough in presidential voting intentions (from 5% before the summer to 16%), the far-right polemicist therefore logically takes off on our membership rating: 23% of French people declare “ support ”(10%) or“ have sympathy ”(13%) for him.
Still, Eric Zemmour has become the most hated political figure in France with 57% of French people declaring to feel “rejection” towards him. This means that he elicits 2.5 times more rejection than sympathy or buy-in.

Among the LR, “none of the entrants really arouses the desire of the voters nor manages to detach themselves from their opponents. Bertrand is therefore 5th with 27% (-1 point), Pécresse ex-aequo 8th with 23% (-2 points) and Barnier 9th with 22% (+1 point) ”, notes Gaël Sliman.

“In addition, none of these really makes right-wing sympathizers outside the RN dream by attracting no more than 6 out of 10 people (Sarkozy regularly exceeded 75%) and even being overtaken by the former Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, n ° 1 in the hearts of right-wing sympathizers with 64% membership rating. To complicate matters, if Bertrand seduces the French more than Pécresse and Barnier, he is now supplanted by his rival in the hearts of sympathizers on the right: while he has stagnated at 60%, she has progressed by 8 points this month to overtake him with 63% (n ° 2 behind Edouard Philippe). Barnier is him in 6th place with 47% odds d ‘adherence to right-wing supporters, “explains Odoxa.

“No one knows if the tens of thousands of LR activists who will choose their presidential candidate will come closer to the taste of the French or that of the few million supporters and right-wing voters … but they will not even be able to really use the polls to help them decide on their favorite, ”said Gaël Sliman.

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille
AFP – THOMAS LO PRESTI

Anne Hidalgo deemed “bad candidate”

This month, our barometer is focusing on the candidacy of Anne Hidalgo. And the least we can say is that the French are very severe with the PS mayor of Paris.

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille

“For three quarters of the French (74% against 25%), Anne Hidalgo is a bad candidate for the PS. It is also the feeling of one in two left sympathizers (49% against 50%). It must be said that the socialist candidate is very unpopular (17th place with 18%). With the sympathizers of the left, it is not much better, it falls by 8 points whereas it has just launched its campaign and is now clearly ahead of them by Jean-Luc Mélenchon (50% against 43% for Hidalgo ) and Christiane Taubira (1st with 54%). And unlike Yannick Jadot, in the same place as her on our ranking with the French and 2 points on that of left-wing sympathizers (41%), it is not for lack of notoriety / visibility, it is good because the French who hate it are almost three times more numerous than those who love it, ”analyzes Gaël Sliman.

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille

“If they have to choose between the two candidates PS and EELV, the French would clearly prefer Jadot to Hidalgo (55% against 39%). In such a context of opinion, it will be very difficult for the PS candidate to exceed 4 to 5% of voting intentions. “

“Only flaws, no quality”

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille

Anne Hidalgo during her investiture on Saturday in Lille

As for the personality traits of the mayor of Paris, they do not manage – for the moment – to seduce the French.

“Our detailed image sieve perfectly illustrates this exceptional severity of the French on her subject: a rare thing for a political figure, they mostly only attribute faults and no quality to her. Among other criticisms, they do not judge her to be competent (69 %), nor close to people (71%) and do not see her as a stateswoman (69%). Three-quarters of French people (74%) say that she does not inspire them confidence and that she is not sincere and they are 6 in 10 to consider it neither dynamic (57%) nor sympathetic (63%). ”, indicates the poll.

A severity which is also shared by supporters of the left, hardly less severe. “If 6 out of 10 of them lend her these last two qualities (dynamic and sympathetic), a majority of them do not consider her sincere, do not trust her and do not find her close to people”, indicates Gaël Sliman, who considers that “the notoriety acquired thanks to the start of the presidential campaign is serving the candidate for the moment: on all the qualifiers that we tested last January, the evolution is negative.”

But Anne Hidalgo remains determined and makes proposals

However, the candidate remains determined. Yesterday on France Info, as in Lille for her inauguration, she assured to want to go through with her candidacy that some would like to “unplug.” To Sandrine Rousseau who called her to join the ecologists for the presidential election, the mayor of Paris replied: “Thank you, Sandrine, but I will not do it under these conditions” …

Anne Hidalgo put forward several proposals that she would put in place if she is elected, such as a law on euthanasia, voting at 16, a revaluation of the minimum wage of between “10% and 15%” or even a climate ISF.

Survey carried out on a sample of French people interviewed online on October 20 and 21, 2021. Sample of 1,005 French people representative of the French population aged 18 and over. The representativeness of the sample is ensured by the quota method. The margin of error for the overall results is, depending on the target score, between plus or minus 1.4 and 3.1 points.