July 7, 2022

Verstappen or Hamilton Champion at the Abu Dhabi GP if …

Coming into the last of a 22 Grand Prix calendar with a perfect tie on points, Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing) and Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) have almost as many chances of becoming 2021 F1 World Champions. However, with a slight advantage for the Dutchman.

The latter has indeed at this stage of the season one more victory than the Briton (9 against 8). This therefore means that in the event of a tie at the end of Yas Marina’s race, he would be sacred.

The drivers’ championship before Abu Dhabi

The different scenarios of the pilot title

If both pilots finish in the points:

  • Whoever finishes ahead of the other is Champion
  • The only exception is if Hamilton finished 9th and Verstappen 10th with the fastest lap; in this case, Verstappen would be Champion.

This season both drivers have finished in the top 10 in the same race 18 times and it has turned 10 times in favor of Verstappen.

If only one of the two pilots finishes in the points:

  • He will be Champion in all cases.

This season, the case where one of the two drivers finished the race in the top 10 and the other not happened only once, at Silverstone, when Hamilton won while Verstappen had retired as a result of their first round contact.

If both drivers finish out of the points or retire:

  • Verstappen will be Champion in all cases.

This season, this has happened twice: in Baku, when Verstappen retired due to a puncture while Hamilton faulted on the last start, then in Italy where the two men went. hooked up and gave up.

The constructors’ championship before Jeddah

With now 28 points ahead of Red Bull, Mercedes has a solid chance of an eighth consecutive world title. Be careful, however: in the event of a tie after the race, which can only be done without a victory for Mercedes, the title would fall into the hands of Red Bull since the Austrian structure has more success to date (10 against 9).

The different scenarios of the manufacturers title

Mercedes will be titled in all cases if:

  • Only one of his drivers finishes 1st or 2nd, regardless of the other’s result
  • His two drivers score at least 17 pts, regardless of Red Bull’s result
  • If Red Bull fails to register at least 28 pts more than Mercedes.

This season, Red Bull have scored at least 28 points more than Mercedes only once, in Monaco. Verstappen won and Sergio Pérez was fourth (37 points overall) when Mercedes saw Hamilton finish seventh with the fastest lap and Valtteri Bottas retire due to a pit problem (7 points overall).

It should be noted that, except victory with a double podium for McLaren and Bérézina for the Scuderia, Ferrari seems to have sealed the top 3. As does Alpine for fifth place, with its 29 units lead over AlphaTauri. As well as the Italian structure for sixth place, with 43 points ahead of Aston Martin. Only 10 points separate Williams and Alfa Romeo for eighth place, but it seems unlikely that Abu Dhabi will provide the racing conditions necessary for a comeback.