January 23, 2022

Seine-et-Marne: doped by the omicron variant, the new wave of Covid saturates the intensive care services

Seine-et-Marne appears in purple on the map of France on the CovidTracker site and that is not a good sign. This means that the department is one of those with an incidence rate of over 400 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The latest data available on the new wave of Covid indicates a rate of 785 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants in Seine-et-Marne, up 54% compared to last week and 32% in just three days!

The average rate nationwide is 647. This makes Seine-et-Marne one of the twenty most affected departments in France. The curve is, like everywhere else in France, exponential. The number of new cases is represented by a line that rises almost vertically.

The omicron variant detected in 44% of new cases

Compared to other Ile-de-France departments, Seine-et-Marne and Essonne are doing the least badly in terms of the increase in the incidence rate. Paris holds the prize for the highest incidence rate in France (1,560 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants) with a weekly growth of over 104%. Next, according to this last criterion, are Hauts-de-Seine with 1,113 cases (+ 84%), Val-de-Marne with 994 cases (+ 73%), Yvelines with 819 cases (+ 68%), Seine-Saint-Denis 498 cases (+ 65%), Val-d’Oise with 837 cases (+ 57%), Seine-et-Marne with 785 cases (+ 54%) and Essonne with 724 cases (+ 50%).

For the moment, the Omicron variant has not yet been detected in the majority of Covid-19 cases in Seine-et-Marne. Also according to this site, it represents “only” 44% of new cases, against less than 27% on December 20. But at the rate things are going, we can bet that the new mutation of Sars-CoV-2, the name of the virus causing Covid, will supplant, in just a few days, the Delta variant, so far in the majority.

The most saturated resuscitation services in Ile-de-France

During the week of December 16-22, which is the latest statistics available, an average of 1,596 additional daily cases were recorded. The combination of the increase in the number of cases and admissions of additional patients with Covid-19 to the hospital automatically leads to a hospital pressure which increases to 126% of the resuscitation beds available before the epidemic. A rate up 11.5%.

Given the rate of hospital equipment in Ile-de-France, it is the most affected department in the region, followed by Val-d’Oise (72%), Yvelines (67%), Essonne (65%) and Seine-Saint-Denis (51%). The national average is 64%. The last three departments are below the 50% mark.

However, the vaccination rate reaches 73% in Seine-et-Marne

This means that the number of patients in intensive care in Seine-et-Marne hospitals with Covid is greater than the number of places available in these services before the epidemic, in March 2020. This represents 95 people hospitalized on the 25th. December. And represents an average of two daily deaths due to Covid over the period from December 19 to 25. Which is sad and dramatic.

Mirrored number of Covid cases (top curve) and number of deaths (bottom curve). This makes it possible to realize the lethality of the virus.

However, if one can say, the epidemic is less lethal than it was during the preceding waves, in France in general and in the department in particular (see curve above). Indeed, the curve of hospital deaths had remained relatively low since the beginning of the summer after nine dramatic months at the end of 2020 until the end of spring 2021.

At least two hypotheses can explain this situation. Either Omicron, the new version of the virus, is less aggressive, although it is much more contagious. That is to say the high rate of vaccination – it is 73% in Seine-et-Marne and continues to progress every day – makes it possible to protect the populations and to avoid developing serious forms of the disease.