January 23, 2022

EXCLUSIVE SURVEY – Emmanuel Macron’s confidence rating wins

Posted on Jan 13, 2022 4:04 PMUpdated Jan 13, 2022, 4:31 PM

Air gap or more worrying rupture? After experiencing remarkable stability over the past year despite the various waves of Covid-19, Emmanuel Macron’s confidence rating fell sharply in January. In the Elabe barometer for “Les Echos” and Classic Radio, it loses 4 points and falls back to 32%.

The percentage of people questioned saying “do not trust him” has increased by 5 points to reach 63%, or nearly two in three French people. And they are 37% (+5 points) to declare “do not trust him at all”, a level never reached since the start of the health crisis. You have to go back to December 2020 to find such a low confidence rating and to September 2020 to see such a high dropout in a month.

Between his controversial remarks marking his willingness to “piss off” the unvaccinated, the weariness of the French in the face of the health crisis – which is reflected in particular by a very followed strike this Thursday in the National Education and a very lively debate around of the vaccine pass – and the increasingly virulent tone of his future presidential competitors within 90 days of the first round, Emmanuel Macron accuses the blow. If Jean-Michel Blanquer finds himself under fire from criticism of his management of the epidemic at school, the head of state is also affected.

Resilience reaches its limits

“The resilience of the French in the face of the health crisis and its restrictions is reaching its limits. The fatigue of society could not fail to have an impact on confidence in the President of the Republic ”, explains Bernard Sananès, President of Elabe.

Emmanuel Macron shows a clear drop among his electorate (-9 points to 70% confidence) and that of François Fillon in 2017 (-5 points to 38%). On the other hand, it is more stable on the left, where it remains in the minority.

It remains to be seen whether the persistence of the health crisis, even if the horizon seems to be clear, will have repercussions on the intentions to vote in the presidential election. The Covid and its management by the executive stifle the political debate in view of the presidential election and the outgoing president was, until then, accused of profiting from it. For now, Emmanuel Macron remains above the electoral campaign while making sure to increasingly assert himself as a candidate. Without being officially declared yet, he took a step last week in an interview with “Parisien”, confirming his “desire” to represent himself. His declaration of candidacy is expected in February.

Decrease among those under 50

The decline in Emmanuel Macron’s confidence is more marked among those under 50. It loses 7 points among 18-24 year olds (among whom the confidence rating remains the highest at 39%), 6 points among 25-34 year olds and 8 points among 35-49 year olds. “Confidence drops the most among 35-49 year olds. But it is they who were most shocked by Macron’s words about the unvaccinated and who are the most reluctant to restrictions. In addition, they are also the ones who say they have been vaccinated the most by constraint and not by choice, ”decrypts Bernard Sananès.

Confidence in its action reached 46% among those who were vaccinated by choice (i.e. 14 points more than its average for all French people), but fell to 17% among those who felt compelled to go for it. get vaccinated and 14% in those who are not. Without real surprise, the planet of the antivax joins that of the anti-Macron.