January 26, 2022

COVID FIGURES. Assessment of the Covid-19 in France, Monday, December 13, 2021

COVID-19 FRANCE. The toll of the coronavirus, this Monday, December 13, 2021, is heavy. 231 deaths have been recorded in 24 hours in hospital in France according to the latest figures …

The coronavirus epidemic is still blazing in France with 12,036 additional cases on Monday. This is 31,812 fewer cases than yesterday, Monday being still a day of weak recovery (few tests carried out on Sunday), but still 728 more than last Monday. The 7-day average goes to 48,879 cases recorded daily against 48,775 yesterday and the incidence rate to 503.37 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in France currently (501.59 yesterday). The number of deaths recorded in 24 hours in hospital is particularly high on December 13: 231 deaths are to be deplored (excluding nursing homes), or 183 more than yesterday and 39 more than last Monday.

In hospitals, there are currently 14,527 patients hospitalized for Covid-19, up 477 from yesterday, while 2,752 people are in intensive care, or 150 more. Over the past 24 hours, 1,505 patients have been admitted to hospital, i.e. 1,033 more than the day before and 81 more compared to last Monday. 379 intensive care admissions were recorded, 268 more than yesterday and 72 more than last Monday.

Here is the latest official data available on Covid-19 in France according to the daily reports from Public Health France and Data.gouv, based on data from SI-DEP tests, hospital data and feedback from medico-social establishments, including the Ehpad. Many details are necessary to fully understand these figures. They are detailed below the table:

Here is the number of cases of Covid-19, deaths, hospitalizations, resuscitations and healings observed more or less compared to the previous report (generally the day before). Latest data available in France according to the daily reports from Public Health France and Data.gouv:

PRECISION : During the updates of Monday 6 and Monday 13 December 2021, Data.gouv showed a drop in the number of cases as well as a drop in the number of deaths in nursing homes. Obviously abnormal data and partly corrected in the table above.

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Covid by city

New cases of covid, positivity rate of tests, proportion of the population tested … Internet users suggest that you consult the data on the evolution of the epidemic in your town free of charge. See

From daily data on the coronavirus in France, we have developed several curves which allow us to observe the evolution of the virus according to the number of confirmed cases, the number of hospitalizations and patients in intensive care, the number of deaths in hospital and total deaths and the number of returns home, assimilated to cures.

For each graph, the curve represents the total (eg: total of cases, current hospitalizations) while the bars correspond to daily changes (balances of hospitalizations each day, new deaths, etc.).

Details on the number of cases: Public Health France specifies that “the data can be very variable depending on the screening activities (reduction in activities on weekends, for example) and the time taken to return the results” (generally 24 to 48 hours). Several changes in the method of counting positive tests could also have disturbed the counting of cases:

  • The government and Public Health France changed their method of collecting data on test results in mid-May 2020, with the SI-DEP project. The figures recorded before and after May 13, 2020 are therefore not completely comparable. Both the quantity and the nature of the tests carried out have changed considerably. From a few thousand tests, France has increased to more than 1 million tests each week then to 2 million at the beginning of November 2020, inevitably impacting the figures. In addition, at the height of the first wave, in March / April 2020, the tests mainly concerned seriously ill people, generally admitted to the hospital, putting aside all patients with no or little symptoms. The actual number of Covid-19 cases in France was therefore quite significantly higher than the estimated number of confirmed cases during this period.
  • As of mid-November 2020, the number of positive tests includes, in addition to PCR tests, the results of antigen tests.
  • A correction of duplicates was made by public health France on May 20, 2021. While there were more than 5.9 million cases in France since the start of the epidemic, this figure has been revised to nearly 5.57 million, or 348,846 fewer cases. A very visible correction on the curve above. Others “incidents” on the flow of data have been reported several times by Public Health France.

Clarification on hospitalizations: We must clearly distinguish here the evolution of the total number of patients hospitalized at an instant T and new hospitalizations, in other words new admissions to the hospital each day (gross). In one case, it is a balance, which takes into account admissions, but also discharges from the hospital (cures or death). In the other, we only talk about new admissions to the hospital or intensive care unit for Covid over a day. On weekends, hospital data are sometimes taken from the Géodes site of Public Health France and are not consolidated data.

Clarification on the number of deaths: Since May 2020, Public Health France no longer updates the nursing home report on a daily basis. This record was reassembled every week at the end of the summer, then several times a week to finally stabilize at a rate of once or twice a week. We therefore initially preferred to erase the number of daily deaths in nursing homes so as not to bias the graphs. At the request of several readers, since November 13, 2020, we again display the updates of deaths in nursing homes (dark gray bars) which causes artificial peaks during the updates. Errors and data corrections have also been reported on several occasions by Public Health France since mid-March 2020, sometimes leading to overestimations generally followed by negative trends in the number of deaths.

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The Ministry of Health calculates, from the raw data, a series of statistics on the progression of Covid-19 in the country. Four particularly important indicators are presented below: the positivity rate of RT-PCR tests, the incidence rate, the number of effective reproductions and the occupancy rate of intensive care beds. If the first and the last are easily understandable (percentage of positive tests out of the total number of tests carried out and percentage of resuscitation beds occupied according to the initial capacities of the country), the other two deserve a definition.

The incidence rate, represented by the second curve, is considered to be a key indicator of the virulence of the virus. This is the number of new cases of coronavirus diagnosed by PCR test that have occurred over the past 7 days. This figure is related to the number of inhabitants, ie a rate expressed per 100,000 inhabitants.

The reproduction name (R) corresponds to the average number of people infected by a patient. If this figure is greater than 1, it means that a person with Covid-19 infects more than one other person on average and therefore that the disease is progressing.

If you don’t see the infographic, click here

Details on the positivity rate and the incidence rate: Public Health France changed its method of calculation on its main indicators which are the incidence rate and the test positivity rate on December 8, 2020. The addition of antigenic tests in the first indicator then mechanically inflated the result of the calculation. . The incidence then went from 86 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in France to more than 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in our curves above. The positivity rate has dropped drastically: while it seemed to be stagnating around 10.7% the previous days, it then fell by more than 4 points. The reason this time comes from the counting of negative tests: if the same person has carried out several tests within 60 days and they are negative, each of them is now counted. Previously, if a person tested negative multiple times in a row within 60 days, only the first test was counted. It was only when he tested positive that his situation changed.

Public Health France explained in a press release that this new calculation method is more precise because it takes into account the “prevalence of the virus in the population tested”. “Today, as the epidemic continues, it is common for the same person to perform several tests, especially when the previous ones were negative. In addition, knowledge has evolved and the risk of reinfection, which is today considered very weak but possible after 60 days, must be able to be identified “, writes the health agency.

Many other graphs as well as maps have been produced by scientists and by recognized journals to attempt to observe as closely as possible the trajectory of the coronavirus epidemic in the world and to compare the evolution of Covid-19 in the different countries affected. Among these curves, those developed using data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, are among the most complete. These data are reproduced in particular by the Financial Times, Google Studio and many others with daily updates. Since mid-April, we have been basing ourselves on the data and graphs presented by the Our World in Data site, a joint project of researchers at the University of Oxford and the NGO Global Change Data Lab. These curves and this map show the number of cases and deaths compared to the population, ie per 1 million inhabitants.

Curve of the number of coronavirus cases per million:

Map of the number of coronavirus deaths per million:

Focusing on the total number of “gross” deaths in each country is indeed questionable, at a time when governments’ management of the pandemic and their results provoke many comparisons as well as lively debates. Reducing the number of deaths to the population is supposed to erase the demographic weight of each country, but on the other hand it does not erase the age pyramid which sometimes presents very significant differences from one country to another.

The other advantage of the curves and maps of the Our World in Data project is that they take into account the time lag in the emergence of the epidemic from one country to another. According to the graphs, the count starts from the first case or the 100th case detected in the territory, or even, for deaths, from the day from which 5 deaths were recorded in the country (day 0 on the x-axis).