January 26, 2022

BFMTV SURVEY – Macron down sharply in the first round, tied with Pécresse in the second round

According to a new Opinion 2022 survey conducted by our partner Elabe for BFMTV, L’Express and SFR, Emmanuel Macron is losing ground to Valérie Pécresse and Marine Le Pen for the first round of the presidential election.

Has the controversy finally caught up with Emmanuel Macron? According to a new Opinion 2022 poll, carried out by the Elabe institute for BFMTV and L’Express with our partner SFR, the president is experiencing a drop in voting intentions, a week after his controversial remarks on the unvaccinated.

Thus, Emmanuel Macron loses about three points in the polls and stands at 22.5% or 23% depending on the candidacy or not of Christiane Taubira. If the latter does not appear, the gap between the Head of State and his main rivals is narrowing. Marine Le Pen and Valérie Pécresse are indeed tied with 17% of voting intentions. Behind, Eric Zemmour stagnated at 13%.

Elabe survey for BFMTV on January 12, 2022.
Elabe survey for BFMTV on January 12, 2022 © BFMTV

The hypothesis of a Taubira candidacy does not drastically change the scenario of the leaders of the race for the Élysée, but rather that of the second knives. Thus, without it, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is given at 9.5%, against 7% for Yannick Jadot and 3.5% for Anne Hidalgo.

A second round more uncertain than ever

If the former Minister of Justice did indeed join the dance, she would be credited with 4% of the voting intentions. His candidacy would particularly lower Anne Hidalgo (2.5%), Yannick Jadot (6%), but also Valérie Pécresse (16%).

Elabe survey for BFMTV on January 12, 2022.
Elabe survey for BFMTV on January 12, 2022 © BFMTV

In the second round, Emmanuel Macron does not manage to widen the gap, on the contrary. In the event that he should face Valérie Pécresse, the two candidates are given 50-50. Since the victory of the president of the Île-de-France region at the Congress of Republicans last December, they have remained neck and neck.

Elabe survey for BFMTV on January 12, 2022.
Elabe survey for BFMTV on January 12, 2022 © BFMTV

Faced with Marine Le Pen, if he is always given a winner, the outgoing president still loses a little ground. He would win with 54.5% of the vote if the second round took place today, against 45.5% for his rival. The two candidates have never been so close. As a reminder, Emmanuel Macron won in 2017 with 66.1% of the vote.

Elabe survey for BFMTV on January 12, 2022.
Elabe survey for BFMTV on January 12, 2022 © BFMTV

Sample of 1,465 people representative of the French population and selected according to the quota method applied to the following variables: sex, age and profession of the interviewee after stratification by region and category of agglomeration. The query was carried out online on January 10 and 11, 2022.