May 22, 2022

4 week trend to Feb 27

Through Regis CREPET, meteorologist

Like every Thursday, our four-week trend is updated. It covers the school holidays in zone B and the beginning of zone A. As the holidays approach, you may be interested in the snow forecasts in the mountains, after a month of January with little precipitation.

The anticyclonic conditions, firmly established in France since January 10, will gradually give way to the return of disturbances in a wetter west to northwest flow. This will put a gradual end to a long period of calm and dry weather even if these disturbances will be relatively weak at first. If the first ten days of February promise to be temporarily disrupted, the rest of the month could once again be calmer and drier in our country.

Week of January 31 to February 6: return of more disturbed weather

The first week of February will be marked by the retreat of the anticyclone over the Atlantic. It will allow disturbances to pass, generally not very active over France, except that of Monday January 31, which promises to be quite active, accompanied by a brief cooling. This degradation will allow the return of snow on our mountains at low altitude, in particular on the reliefs of the east of France. Mistral and tramontane will blow strong. After this disturbance, the weather will possibly remain cloudy and humid over the northern half while it will improve in the south. Temperatures rise a little above seasonal averages.

Week of February 7 to 13: disrupted weather, but limited reliability

The majority scenario reports a west to northwest Atlantic flow, carrying rainy periods over most of the country except for a small southeast quarter for this first week of vacation. If you go on vacation in the mountains, snow could fall at medium altitudes a few times. Temperatures, initially close to normal for the season, will drop again with the direction of the wind to the north. Indeed, as disturbances pass, the winds change direction. Turning to the north, it would bring a blow of snow at medium, even low altitude, within this period, the chronology of which will have to be refined.

Week of February 14 to 20: probable return of the high pressure

After the possibly disrupted sequence with moderate rainy periods with snow in the mountains, the high pressures should reform near France. This swelling could also be faster than expected, as indicated above. We would then find a calm, quite cold and rather beautiful weather on the hexagon, with however the same consequences as in January: many low clouds and fogs in the plains, sun in the mountains, temperatures again falling with the return of the frosts thanks to clear nights. This development will require confirmation, but seems consistent with our seasonal trends, which envisage a month of February often marked by high pressures on our country, a bit like the month of January.

Week of February 21 to 27: towards a general thaw?

The last week of February could be characterized by the return of a south-westerly flow, initiating a global thaw. In this configuration, the weather would be quite disturbed on the northern half while in the south, it could be quite nice. At this distant date, this first trend will require confirmation.

In conclusion, it should be noted that the month of February presents uncertainties, even if the trend, drawn up on Thursday 27, shows little deviation from that of the previous week. The uncertainties remain the same and concern the activity of disturbances in our country. All in all, the month of February should present more or less the same characteristics as the month of January, with a risk of recording rainfall below the seasonal averages while the temperatures would be in line with the standards. This will raise the question of a possible early spring drought which could worsen in March.

Next update, Thursday, February 3 at 5 p.m.

Read also

Seasonal forecast for the rest of the winter until April

February climate in France: the month of extremes