November 28, 2021

Emmanuel Macron remains in the lead ahead of Le Pen and Zemmour

According to the latest OpinionWay “PrésiTrack” poll for CNEWS published this Thursday, Emmanuel Macron remains in the lead in voting intentions in the first round of the presidential election (24%), ahead of Marine Le Pen (19%) and Xavier Bertrand ( 13%), in the event that he would be the candidate of the right. Eric Zemmour (12%) is at the foot of the podium.

Still not declared in the race for the Elysee Palace, the polemicist loses one point compared to the previous investigation unveiled in October. The current head of state also loses one point. Conversely, the leader of the National Rally (RN) and the president of Hauts-de-France gained one point compared to the October poll.

Behind the quartet, it is the status quo for Jean-Luc Mélenchon (9%), Yannick Jadot (8%) and Anne Hidalgo (5%), who remain with the same percentage of voting intentions. The same goes for the candidates who bring up the rear like Arnaud Montebourg (3%), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (3%), Fabien Roussel (2%), Philippe Poutou (1%) and Nathalie Arthaud (1%).

Compared to the previous survey, 19% (+ 2 points) of respondents did not confide their intention to vote for this first round of the presidential election. The margins of certainty are smaller: from 1.3 to 2.6 points at most, according to OpinionWay.

Without Zemmour, Le Pen in front of Macron

If Valérie Pécresse won the primary on the right, the president of the Île-de-France region would come fourth in the first round with 11%, an increase of 3 points compared to the last survey. She would be behind the trio led by Emmanuel Macron (24%, -1 point), Marine Le Pen (20%, +1 pt) and Eric Zemmour (12%, -1 pt).

In the event that Michel Barnier became the candidate of the right, he would come in fourth position in voting intentions, tied with Jean-Luc Mélenchon (9%), just behind the polemicist (12%, -1 point), the president of the RN (21%, +1 pt) and the current resident of the Elysée (25%, -1 pt).

If Eric Zemmour does not show up, Marine Le Pen leads the voting intentions with 26%, ahead of Emmanuel Macron by a short head (25%, -1 pt). Xavier Bertrand completes the podium with 14%, one point more than the previous month.

50% are not yet interested in the presidential election

Regarding the second round, the head of state (56%) would retain the presidency for five more years, ahead of the president of the RN who however gained two points (44%). Compared to the last survey (37%), 31% of respondents did not express any intention to vote.

The survey also looked at key themes for the presidential election. If the purchasing power remains at the top of the concerns of respondents (52%), it loses however three points and sees social protection (health, pensions, etc.) gain two points and occupy the second place of the issues with 50%. Security comes in third place (44%) with an increase of three points, ahead of immigration (39%, -1 point) and the environment (38%, +4 points) which occupied the news with the Cop26 from Glasgow.

capture_decran_2021-11-18_a_17.12.10-taille640_61968186c1381.jpg

Finally, one in two respondents said they were not yet interested in the presidential campaign. According to the survey, 8% said they planned to take an interest in the campaign in January and 14% said they would look into the presidential election in April, just before the first round.

capture_decran_2021-11-18_a_17.13.04-taille640_619682fb6a9c0.jpg

In all, 39% said they would be interested in the campaign from January. Of those polled, 10% said they will not be interested in the election.